Methods of Prosperity newsletter no.168: Tim Draper

Tesla ran short of cash. That’s when Elon Musk offered $10 million of his own money, but on his terms. Elon would take over as CEO. Tim Draper’s firm accepted the deal: “We’ll accept the ten million dollars, and you can manage the company.”

“I back the missionaries, not the mercenaries.”

— Tim Draper [forbes]

Tim Draper is an American venture capitalist and technology investor.

Opulence is Sean Allen Fenn’s follow up to 2022’s Surplus. We have plenty of music, and that’s the beauty of it. We’re on the cusp of a new era of technological abundance. This is the soundtrack.

Most business owners struggle with uncertainty.

They try to eliminate every risk. They wait for perfect information, and protect the business they already have.

They use consensus as camouflage. How? By copying proven models and studying competitors.

They need evidence that a market already exists. They neglect the uncomfortable work of backing an unproven future.

Not Tim Draper. He invested early in technologies most investors considered irrational:

Web-based email, peer-to-peer calling, electric vehicles, commercial spaceflight, and Bitcoin.

He bought it at around $4 in 2011 and lost all of it due to the Mt. Gox hack. After that loss, he wondered why people still wanted it. Then he did more research. Bitcoin eliminated the need for a third-party bank.

Draper Associates says he bought 29,657 bitcoins seized in the Silk Road case. It was at a 2014 U.S. Marshals auction, when much of the venture industry avoided the asset.

When he was ten years old, his father gave him a $1 million bill in Confederate currency. Excited, he asked “what can I do with it?” His father informed him that he could do nothing with it. Confederate dollars became worthless after the American Civil War. It was fiat currency not backed by hard assets.

One dollar today is worth more than a dollar in a year. It loses purchasing power, and will keep dropping. Inflation is a feature of fiat currency. Assets will increase in value as inflation increases over time.

The purchasing power of bitcoin continues to grow over time. Bitcoin is volatile, but USD is fiat currency not backed by a hard asset such as gold. Bitcoin is a hard, scarce digital asset. Its 24/7 global market makes it dramatically more liquid than real estate. For many investors, bitcoin is easier to transact than physical gold.

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ⓘ  This is not an offer, solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Investing involves risk and may result in partial or total loss. Prospective investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and should consult with a tax or legal adviser before making any investment decision.

“It’s OK if you push the edge once. You get a lot of backlash. You push it twice, you get crazy backlash. Push it three times, that’s your personality. And you are allowed to push the edge.”

Tim Draper was born into Silicon Valley’s venture-capital dynasty. His father was William H. Draper III. He was one of the West Coast’s early venture capitalists and later founded Sutter Hill Ventures. His grandfather helped establish the first professional venture-capital firm on the West Coast.

There were decades of accepting small failures in exchange for occasional enormous outcomes.

It’s a contrarian, asymmetric approach. The kind that works best for capital allocators. Not ordinary operators who can’t afford repeated losses.

Draper doesn’t merely “take big risks.” He looks for founders whose commitment is deeper than compensation.

These are people pursuing a future they would build even before the market rewards them.

His own advantage came from turning that belief into a portfolio strategy:

Own small stakes in many uncertain ventures, tolerate failure.

“I have a willingness to fail. So I’m willing to say I’m going to invest in this guy.”

Remain exposed to the rare company or technology that changes an entire industry.

The method is not “be reckless.” You can fail small when you own upside. Enter before consensus makes the opportunity expensive.

Stop asking whether an opportunity looks safe. Start asking whether the upside is large enough to justify a carefully limited loss.

I like you,

– Sean Allen Fenn

PS: The purpose of wealth is freedom. You can have financial freedom, but not by yourself. That’s why we’re building our core group of people. It’s a community to help each other achieve financial freedom. Whatever method of prosperity you choose, don’t go at it alone. You can now join our Methods of Prosperity community on Telegram here:

Are you seeking new perspectives and fresh ideas? Do you have a willingness to explore new possibilities? Stay ahead of the curve and make the most out of emerging opportunities. Your guide on this journey is Sean Allen Fenn, host of Hidden Secrets Revealed Live (HSRL). Recorded live every Wednesday on 𝕏 .

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